Forex Trading Signals 24th January 2012 (Pre-US Market Open)

EUR/USD INTRADAY: CAPPED BY A NEGATIVE TREND LINE. 
Pivot: 1.3355
Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 1.3355 with targets @ 1.327 & 1.3245 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.3355 look for further upside with 1.34 & 1.3435 as targets.

Comment: as long as 1.3355 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Daily Forex Brief 24th January 2013

London :Thursday 24th January 2013

Data/ Event Risks

USD: Lots of second and third-tier data out today, commencing with initial claims at 13.30. The latter fell to a 5yr low last week, at a time when the S&P 500 reached a 5yr high. Labour market news has mostly been supportive of the dollar in recent months. GBP: Eagerly awaited is tomorrow’s initial estimate of Q4 GDP. Some analysts expect a decline of as much as 0.5%, which if confirmed would presumably weigh on the pound. That said, a relatively bearish figure is already priced in, so sterling has the potential to rally should GDP deliver an upside surprise. EUR: Plenty of economic releases out of Europe today for traders to get excited about, with manufacturing and services PMIs for France/Germany and the EC.

Forex Trading Signal Pre EU Open, 24 JANUARY 2013

EUR/USD INTRADAY: CAPPED BY A NEGATIVE TREND LINE. Pivot: 1.3355. Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions @ 1.334 with 1.327 & 1.3245 in sight. Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1.3355 will call for a rebound towards 1.34 & 1.3435. Comment: the pair is capped by an intraday declining trend line maintining a bearish pressure.

Forex: GBP/USD pauses on Cameron´s speech

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - GBP/USD has posted a morning low at 1.5801 as UK PM Cameron delivers his long anticipated speech on Britain´s relationship with the European Union.

Daily Forex Brief

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Data/ Event Risks

USD: Not much of substance in terms of releases today, only house prices at 14:00. Tomorrow agenda includes jobless claims and Bloomberg consumer comfort. Next FOMC meeting now just one week away. Dollar struggling for direction. Probably needs word from the President as to what he thinks of Republicans’ latest debt ceiling proposal. GBP: Labour market news likely needs to be reasonably upbeat to prevent further sterling weakness. Continues to soften against the euro. Cameron’s speech on the UK and Europe later today will also be pivotal. EUR: Consumer confidence in the middle of the afternoon, otherwise not much to move the euro’s dial.

Idea of the Day

Yen swung around wildly yesterday amidst a flurry of comments from Japanese politicians. Abe claimed ‘monetary regime change’ and that he had not forced the BOJ’s hand – correct on the first one (the BOJ is now deeply politicised) and therefore wrong on the second one. Shirakawa and Aso also on the wires. Yen profit-taking accentuated for a short time by sudden free-fall in the euro. Coming into the London session, some additional profit-taking on yen shorts has been evident. Yen direction more evenly poised – USD/JPY now down near 88, EUR/JPY close to 117. Yen bears will want to see significant buying interest down at these levels soon, or else we could witness a much more savage short squeeze.

Latest FX News

EUR: Whiplash for euro-traders yesterday after early bid tone was replaced by a rapid drop after a myriad of bank rumours and talk that ECB head Weidmann had left the building. Single currency did obtain some confidence from buoyant German ZEW and claim from the Bundesbank that German growth for this year will be revised higher, only for the euro to drift back later. Entering the London session below 1.33 and looking just slightly offered. GBP: Managed to outperform the struggling euro yesterday, in part because there is such a strong bid at 1.58. If that breaks, then we are in completely new territory. Latest government borrowing figures did not help speculation that the ratings agencies might soon decide to lower the UK’s AAA debt rating. Also, CBI Trends survey was depressing. The suspicion remains that sterling is still vulnerable, although be careful because this is becoming consensus. CHF: A third straight day of CHF gains as shorts were again sent scurrying by the latest bank rumours emanating from the Eurozone. Suddenly chatter about the SNB lifting the EUR/CHF ceiling to 1.25 has ceased. AUD: A low print on inflation generated some excitement that perhaps the RBA would lower rates again next month, although on balance they seem likely to hold their fire. Aussie now at 1.0540, still seems pretty robust overall.